NVDA delivered, gamma flipped positive, and the whole map inverted overnight. Dampened regime, 718 magnet, 713.20 is the floor that matters.
Yesterday we said the entire board was positioning into one event and that the map would be rebuilt on whatever NVIDIA did overnight. It was. QQQ comes into the bell at 717.09 after closing 711.37 — a gap of nearly six points — and the gamma regime has flipped from short to long. Net GEX is +$1.1B with a call/put gamma ratio of 2.51 against a $2.6B book. Dealers are long gamma now, which means hedging flows dampen moves instead of amplifying them. That is the single most important change on the board: yesterday every break got help, today every break gets resistance.
What Changed Overnight
NVIDIA’s Q2 was a beat and a raise. Revenue $96.2B against $92.38B expected, adjusted EPS $2.22, data center $89.0B against $85.86B, hyperscale $48.71B against $43.55B, and gross margin at 75%. The Q3 guide came in at $105.84B–$110.16B with a $108B midpoint, roughly $3B above street. Vera Rubin is in full production, Huang framed it as “AI has reached its inflection point,” and the stock is trading up around 5% pre-market near 222.80.
The read-through matters more than the print. Futures climbed because the outlook reinforced that AI capex has further to run — the fear that spending was losing momentum got answered, at least for a quarter. That is what re-rates an index, not the EPS line.
The Gamma Map
| Level | Price | What It Is |
|---|---|---|
| Expected Move High | 722.46 | Upper band of today’s ±$5.37 0DTE move |
| Overnight High | 720.18 | Session high so far |
| VAH | 719.60 | Value area high |
| Call Wall / Magnet | 718.00 | STRONG magnet — the gravity center of the session |
| 9 EMA | 717.14 | Rising, bullish cloud |
| POC | 716.87 | Point of control |
| VAL | 716.72 | Value area low — first support shelf |
| 21 EMA | 715.71 | Cloud base |
| Prior Session Low | 714.00 | Overnight floor |
| Zero Gamma | 713.20 | Support, and the vol trigger — regime changes below |
| Expected Move Low | 711.72 | Lower band |
| Prior Close | 711.37 | Wednesday’s settle — full gap fill |
| Put Wall | 700.00 | Far below — strong vol trigger if ever reached |
Call GEX is $1.9B against put GEX of –$738M across 263,560 total open interest, and 4.1% of that book expires today. The 0DTE expected move is ±$5.37 on 32.31% implied — note that the whole expected range, 711.72 to 722.46, sits above the put wall and around the call wall. This is a session defined by its center, not its edges.
The signal stack is unusually coherent this morning: volatility flagged STRONG as dampened (favorable for selling premium, not buying it), a STRONG magnet at 718, moderate support at 713.20, and the next real vol trigger all the way down at 700. Read plainly, the market is telling you it wants to sit near 718 and grind.
Structure
The tick chart is clean and bullish: 9 EMA at 717.14 over the 21 at 715.71, cloud intact, and price working the top of a value area defined 716.72 to 719.60. Overnight ran up to 720.18 before settling back toward the call wall — exactly the behavior long gamma produces. The compressed value area is the tell: three points of value on a six-point gap means the market accepted the new price fast and stopped arguing about it.
Worth noting where this sits in the bigger picture. QQQ topped at 735.86 on August 17 and spent five sessions distributing down to 705. Today’s gap reclaims a chunk of that, but 720.18 is still well under the descending highs of the past two weeks. This is a bounce inside a downtrend until it proves otherwise — that proof lives above 724–725, not at 718.
Cross-Asset
Semis confirm. SOXL holds a bullish cloud with the 9 EMA at 124.95 over the 21 at 123.64, and the NVDA halo is doing exactly what you’d expect to the complex.
Mega-cap does not — again. MAGS is trading at 67.57, below both its 9 EMA (67.70) and 21 EMA (67.63), and below value area low at 67.66. That is the third straight session of the same divergence: semis lead, mega-cap lags. Until MAGS reclaims its value area, treat upside extension past the call wall as unconfirmed. One name beating earnings is not the same as broad participation.
Upside Path
Trigger: a tick-chart close above 719.60 with volume expansion, confirmed by MAGS reclaiming 67.66.
Targets: 720.18 first, then the 722.46 expected-move band.
Invalidation: a close back under 718.
Understand what you’re fighting on this one. In a positive-gamma regime, dealers sell into strength to stay hedged — rallies get sold mechanically, not emotionally. Above 718 you are trading against the flow, and 722 is where the expected move says the session’s fuel runs out. Take profits into strength rather than pressing for a trend day.
Downside Path
Trigger: a rejection at 719.60–720.18 followed by a closing break of 716.72.
Targets: 715.71 at the cloud base, then 714.00, then 713.20.
Invalidation: a reclaim of 717.14.
713.20 is the level that changes the character of the day. Above it, the long-gamma cushion holds and every dip is a fade. Below it, the regime flips back to what we traded all week — amplified moves, thin air, and nothing structural until well under 710. Gap-fill risk toward 711.37 only becomes real on the other side of that line.
Catalysts
- Jobless claims came in tight — 203K against 208K expected, with continuing claims at 1.778M versus 1.792M. A strong labor market is good news for the economy and unhelpful for rate-cut odds, which is the same tension that made Wednesday’s PCE sting.
- Advance goods trade deficit blew out to $118.8B from $101.4B, up 17.2% month over month — a meaningful drag signal for Q3 GDP that the tape is currently ignoring.
- Fed’s Hammack speaks twice — 10:00 AM and 1:00 PM ET.
- 7-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET. Prior high yield 4.473%, bid-to-cover 2.490. Rates have been the sore spot all week.
- The Jackson Hole Symposium opens this evening and runs through the weekend, with Warsh speaking Friday morning. Positioning ahead of Fed-speak is a real reason for the afternoon to go quiet.
Looking Ahead
Friday brings the Preliminary Benchmark Payrolls Revision, estimated at +157K against a prior revision of –911K. That is a wide swing on a number that reshapes how the market thinks about labor-market strength, and it lands the same morning as final UMich sentiment and inflation expectations — into a Jackson Hole weekend. If you have been enjoying a quiet week, tomorrow is not it.
Levels are levels. Wait for the trigger, know your invalidation before you enter, and size to your own risk tolerance and account.
Hunt the Day. Own the Trade.
This is educational content, not financial advice. Options carry substantial risk of loss.
0DTE Hunter 
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